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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 60

Carolina Panthers 32 – Las Vegas Raiders 32

What Actually Happened

(5:15) 5-M.Palardy punts 49 yards to LV 11, Center-44-J.Jansen. 30-J.Richard to LV 13 for 2 yards (27-R.McClain).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.80 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 60, worth -2.99 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP