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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 10 at the 44

Carolina Panthers 32 – Las Vegas Raiders 35

What Actually Happened

(1:00) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton sacked at CAR 47 for -9 yards (52-K.Mack). FUMBLES (52-K.Mack) [52-K.Mack], RECOVERED by LV-52-K.Mack at CAR 45. 52-K.Mack to CAR 45 for no gain (79-C.Scott).

The Three Options

GO +0.49 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.39 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 44, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.79 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -0.36 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model