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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 46

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(10:57) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-11-K.Aiken.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.58 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.32 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model