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Cincinnati Bengals

HC Marvin Lewis
@
BAL Home

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
Sunday 2016-11-27 · 13:00 M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 42.0

Win Probability

CIN
54.8%
BAL
45.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CIN offense: +0.069 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
  • QB edge to CIN: Joe Flacco (BAL) -0.084 vs Andy Dalton (CIN) +0.129 EPA/dropback
  • BAL offense: -0.098 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)
  • BAL defense: -0.096 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • CIN defense: +0.082 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

CIN 21
–
BAL 20
Projected margin: CIN by 1 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

CIN

A.J. Green WR Out Hamstring
C.J. Uzomah TE Doubtful Calf
Shawn Williams S Doubtful Hamstring
Derron Smith S Questionable Thigh
Clark Harris LS Questionable Groin

BAL

Alex Lewis T Out Ankle
Lorenzo Taliaferro RB Out Thigh
Crockett Gillmore TE Doubtful Thigh
Jimmy Smith CB Doubtful Back
Elvis Dumervil LB Questionable Foot
Timmy Jernigan DT Questionable Shoulder
Brandon Williams DT Questionable Back
Marshal Yanda G Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CIN 14
–
BAL 19

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:21 TD BAL (10:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Flacco pass short right to 18-B.Perriman for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – BAL 6
  • Q1 05:44 FG BAL (5:44) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CIN 0 – BAL 10
  • Q2 14:53 FG CIN (14:53) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – BAL 10
  • Q2 01:45 FG BAL (1:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CIN 3 – BAL 13
  • Q2 00:02 FG BAL (:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CIN 3 – BAL 16
  • Q3 04:23 TD CIN (4:23) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 85-T.Eifert for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – BAL 16
  • Q4 12:20 FG BAL (12:20) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch. CIN 9 – BAL 19
  • Q4 06:04 FG CIN (6:04) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 12 – BAL 19
  • Q4 00:11 SAF CIN (:11) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch up the middle ran ob in End Zone for -23 yards, SAFETY. Penalty on BAL, Offensive Holding, declined. CIN 14 – BAL 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CIN 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (8:33) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 49 yards to BAL 36, Center-48-T.Ott. 14-D.Hester to CIN 36 for 28 yards (89-R.Hewitt).

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.27 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (14:53) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 30%

    (10:57) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-11-K.Aiken.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 1 at the 84
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (8:41) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to BAL 43, Center-48-T.Ott. 14-D.Hester to BAL 49 for 6 yards (23-C.Brown).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 30%

    (7:03) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 39 yards to CIN 7, Center-46-M.Cox, fair catch by 12-A.Erickson.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (4:42) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to BAL 20, Center-48-T.Ott, downed by CIN-23-C.Brown.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 9 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 48%

    (1:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q2 CIN 4th & 12 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:15) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to BAL 14, Center-48-T.Ott. 14-D.Hester MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 12. 14-D.Hester pushed ob at BAL 27 for 15 yards (59-N.Vigil). CIN-23-C.Brown was injured during the play.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 56%

    (:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 CIN 4th & 7 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 51%

    (13:16) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 28 yards to BAL 10, Center-48-T.Ott, fair catch by 14-D.Hester.

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 51
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 20%

    (9:22) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 37 yards to CIN 14, Center-46-M.Cox, out of bounds.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 59%

    (15:00) 30-K.Dixon left end to CIN 27 for 8 yards (27-D.Kirkpatrick).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 90%

    (12:20) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 10 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (10:52) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-48-T.Ott, Touchback.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 10 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:02) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 44 yards to CIN 36, Center-46-M.Cox. 12-A.Erickson pushed ob at CIN 47 for 11 yards (10-C.Moore).

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 90%

    (6:04) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Nugent 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-T.Ott, Holder-10-K.Huber.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 1 at the 82 late-game
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (4:31) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 63 yards to CIN 19, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-84-D.Waller.

  • Q4 CIN 4th & 3 at the 29 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 49% p(FG) 74%

    (1:27) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 85-T.Eifert pushed ob at BAL 16 for 13 yards (57-C.Mosley).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 8 at the 77 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.69 EP
    p(convert) 38%

    (:11) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch up the middle ran ob in End Zone for -23 yards, SAFETY. Penalty on BAL, Offensive Holding, declined.