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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 1 at the 84

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

What Actually Happened

(8:41) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 41 yards to BAL 43, Center-48-T.Ott. 14-D.Hester to BAL 49 for 6 yards (23-C.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 83, worth +0.51 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 84, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

PUNT -2.41 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 42, worth -2.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.44 EP