Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 5 at the 62

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Baltimore Ravens 10

(4:42) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 42 yards to BAL 20, Center-48-T.Ott, downed by CIN-23-C.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.87 EP
55% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 62, worth -3.67 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model