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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 39

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(1:45) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.86 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.67 EP
KICK -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • 48% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 52% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model