Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 12 at the 72

Cincinnati Bengals 3 – Baltimore Ravens 13

What Actually Happened

(1:15) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 58 yards to BAL 14, Center-48-T.Ott. 14-D.Hester MUFFS catch, and recovers at BAL 12. 14-D.Hester pushed ob at BAL 27 for 15 yards (59-N.Vigil). CIN-23-C.Brown was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -2.17 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.56 EP
68% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 72, worth -3.91 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model