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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 36

Baltimore Ravens 13 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Field Goal formation) 9-J.Tucker 54 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +2.30 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 36, worth -0.08 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +3.00 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 46, worth -0.28 EP
PUNT +0.01 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model