Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 10 at the 63

Cincinnati Bengals 9 – Baltimore Ravens 19

(10:52) (Punt formation) 10-K.Huber punts 63 yards to end zone, Center-48-T.Ott, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.45 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.42 EP
66% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 63, worth -3.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model