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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 1 at the 82

Baltimore Ravens 19 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

What Actually Happened

(4:31) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch punts 63 yards to CIN 19, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by BAL-84-D.Waller.

The Three Options

GO -0.89 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.48 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 82, worth -4.38 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.51 EP
What Happened
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 40, worth -1.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP