Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 19 – Cincinnati Bengals 12

(:11) (Punt formation) 4-S.Koch up the middle ran ob in End Zone for -23 yards, SAFETY. Penalty on BAL, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP

What Happened

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth -0.00 EP
62% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 77, worth -1.28 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.69 EP