Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 46

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 3-B.Nortman punts 39 yards to BUF 7, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.19 EP
69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.91 EP

KICK -1.69 EP

29% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
71% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -3.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model