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Jacksonville Jaguars

HC Gus Bradley
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Buffalo Bills

HC Rex Ryan
Sunday 2016-11-27 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US ☀️ Clear Spread 8.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

JAX
31.1%
BUF
68.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • JAX offense: -0.084 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • BUF offense: +0.071 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • Blake Bortles (JAX): -0.050 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • BUF defense: -0.047 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

JAX 17
–
BUF 24
Projected margin: BUF by 7 Projected total: 41

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

JAX

Jared Odrick DE Out Shoulder
Dan Skuta LB Out Back
Chris Smith DE Out Eye
Julius Thomas TE Out Back
Abry Jones DT Questionable Ankle
T.J. Yeldon RB Questionable Ankle
Arrelious Benn WR Questionable Concussion
Aaron Colvin CB Questionable Concussion

BUF

Robert Blanton S Out Foot
Mike Gillislee RB Out Hamstring
Robert Woods WR Out Knee
Corbin Bryant DT Doubtful Shoulder
Percy Harvin WR Questionable Illness
Seantrel Henderson T Questionable Not Injury Related
Lorenzo Alexander LB Questionable Ankle
Charles Clay TE Questionable Knee
Cordy Glenn T Questionable Back
LeSean McCoy RB Questionable Thumb
Sammy Watkins WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

JAX 21
–
BUF 28

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:21 TD JAX (8:21) 33-C.Ivory right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 6 – BUF 0
  • Q2 00:24 TD BUF (:24) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – BUF 6
  • Q3 15:00 TD BUF (15:00) (Shotgun) 25-L.McCoy up the middle for 75 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 7 – BUF 12
  • Q3 09:32 TD JAX (9:32) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass deep middle to 11-M.Lee for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN [95-K.Williams]. Caught at BUF 1. JAX 13 – BUF 13
  • Q3 03:07 TD BUF (3:07) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor scrambles left tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX 14 – BUF 19
  • Q4 15:00 TD JAX (15:00) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 88-A.Hurns for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. JAX-88-A.Hurns was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. Swing pass, caught at BUF 15. A.Hurns limps off. JAX 20 – BUF 20
  • Q4 10:52 TD BUF (10:52) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass deep right to 17-J.Hunter for 16 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Caught in front corner of end zone. JAX 21 – BUF 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (6:42) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to JAX 23, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 13-R.Greene MUFFS catch, touched at JAX 23, and recovers at JAX 21. 13-R.Greene to JAX 21 for no gain (36-J.Meeks).

  • Q1 JAX 4th & 4 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (4:09) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to BUF 17, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-B.Tate to BUF 17 for no gain (25-P.Thompson).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 10 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:41) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to JAX 31, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 13-R.Greene MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 31. 13-R.Greene pushed ob at JAX 41 for 10 yards (38-S.Brown).

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 9 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 29%

    (15:00) 3-B.Nortman punts 39 yards to BUF 7, Center-46-C.Tinker, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 42
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 39%

    (7:38) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-B.Nortman punts 42 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback. Kick into end zone.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 10 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (3:21) 6-C.Schmidt punts 36 yards to JAX 22, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44%

    (1:38) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to BUF 30, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-B.Tate to JAX 27 for 43 yards (25-P.Thompson). PENALTY on JAX-44-M.Jack, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 27.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 94%

    (1:00) 31-J.Williams up the middle to JAX 7 for 6 yards (37-J.Cyprien).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 7 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:21) 6-C.Schmidt punts 43 yards to JAX 29, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-36-J.Meeks. Ball glanced off helmet of J.Meeks at BUF 29.

  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (4:42) 3-B.Nortman punts 61 yards to end zone, Center-46-C.Tinker, Touchback. Kick through end zone. PENALTY on JAX-44-M.Jack, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at BUF 20.

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (8:43) 3-B.Nortman punts 45 yards to BUF 21, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 15-B.Tate.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 70
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 72%

    (6:55) 6-C.Schmidt punts 57 yards to JAX 13, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 81-B.Walters pushed ob at JAX 27 for 14 yards (36-J.Meeks).

  • Q4 JAX 4th & 9 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 32%

    (3:33) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short middle to 11-M.Lee to BUF 41 for 4 yards (21-N.Robey-Coleman). Caught at BUF 42, crossing from left.