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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 58

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(3:21) 6-C.Schmidt punts 36 yards to JAX 22, Center-65-G.Sanborn, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.65 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 58, worth -2.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 18, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model