Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 73

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(1:38) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to BUF 30, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-B.Tate to JAX 27 for 43 yards (25-P.Thompson). PENALTY on JAX-44-M.Jack, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at JAX 27.

The Three Options

GO -1.69 EP

44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.31 EP
56% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 73, worth -4.02 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model