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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 28 – Jacksonville Jaguars 21

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 6-C.Schmidt punts 57 yards to JAX 13, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 81-B.Walters pushed ob at JAX 27 for 14 yards (36-J.Meeks).

The Three Options

GO -0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.34 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.25 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 28, worth -1.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP