Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 5 at the 70

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(6:42) 6-C.Schmidt punts 47 yards to JAX 23, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 13-R.Greene MUFFS catch, touched at JAX 23, and recovers at JAX 21. 13-R.Greene to JAX 21 for no gain (36-J.Meeks).

The Three Options

GO -0.97 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.09 EP
54% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 70, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model