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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 60

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(4:09) 3-B.Nortman punts 43 yards to BUF 17, Center-46-C.Tinker. 15-B.Tate to BUF 17 for no gain (25-P.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -1.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +1.71 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 60, worth -3.59 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -1.24 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 19, worth -1.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model