Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 10 at the 83

Buffalo Bills 0 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(2:41) 6-C.Schmidt punts 52 yards to JAX 31, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 13-R.Greene MUFFS catch, and recovers at JAX 31. 13-R.Greene pushed ob at JAX 41 for 10 yards (38-S.Brown).

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +1.63 EP
63% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 83, worth -4.66 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model