Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 76

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(13:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to KC 17, Center-45-T.Gafford. 10-T.Hill to KC 34 for 17 yards (31-J.Simmons).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +2.26 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 76, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model