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Kansas City Chiefs

8-3 HC Andy Reid
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Denver Broncos

7-4 HC Gary Kubiak
Sunday 2016-11-27 · 20:30 ET Sports Authority Field at Mile High, Denver US 💨 Windy Spread 3.5 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

KC
39.4%
DEN
60.6%
💨 Windy

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • DEN defense: -0.124 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • DEN offense: -0.045 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • DEN on 7 more days rest than KC
  • Wind 21 mph
  • Played at altitude (3,000+ ft)
  • Alex Smith (KC): +0.075 EPA/dropback in prior starts

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

KC 20 13–27
–
DEN 22 15–29
Projected margin: DEN by 2 Projected total: 42

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 12

KC

Dee Ford LB Out Hamstring
Jaye Howard DE Out Hip
Jeremy Maclin WR Out Groin
Derrick Johnson LB Questionable Achilles
Steven Nelson CB Questionable Neck
Dontari Poe DT Questionable Back
Marcus Peters CB Questionable Hip
Kendall Reyes DE Questionable Knee

DEN

Casey Kreiter LS Out Calf

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

KC 30
–
DEN 27

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 06:20 SAF KC (6:20) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian sacked at DEN 0 for -8 yards (50-J.Houston). FUMBLES (50-J.Houston) [50-J.Houston], recovered by DEN-73-R.Okung at DEN -5. 73-R.Okung tackled in End Zone, SAFETY. KC 2 – DEN 0
  • Q2 06:16 TD KC 9-R.Dixon kicks 66 yards from DEN 20 to KC 14. 10-T.Hill for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 8 – DEN 0
  • Q2 01:51 FG DEN (1:51) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon. KC 9 – DEN 3
  • Q3 07:48 TD DEN (7:48) (Shotgun) 13-T.Siemian pass short right to 87-J.Taylor for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 9 – DEN 9
  • Q3 00:37 TD KC (:37) (Shotgun) 10-T.Hill right end for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 15 – DEN 10
  • Q4 07:53 TD DEN (7:53) 13-T.Siemian pass deep left to 10-E.Sanders for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on KC-38-R.Parker, Illegal Contact, declined. KC 16 – DEN 16
  • Q4 03:12 TD DEN (3:12) 13-T.Siemian pass deep left to 16-B.Fowler for 76 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 16 – DEN 23
  • Q4 00:15 TD KC (:15) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 10-T.Hill to DEN 1 for 2 yards (29-B.Roby). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was down by contact ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 10-T.Hill for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. KC 22 – DEN 24
  • Q5 08:55 FG DEN (8:55) 8-B.McManus 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon. KC 24 – DEN 27
  • Q5 04:23 FG KC (4:23) 5-C.Santos 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 27 – DEN 27
  • Q5 00:05 FG KC (:05) 5-C.Santos 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt. KC 30 – DEN 27

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:05) 9-R.Dixon punts 59 yards to KC 17, Center-45-T.Gafford. 10-T.Hill to KC 34 for 17 yards (31-J.Simmons).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 KC 4th & 6 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (11:27) 2-D.Colquitt punts 49 yards to DEN 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 8 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (9:27) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to 50, Center-45-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 KC 4th & 20 at the 38
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 44%

    (6:22) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DEN 4th & 2 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.96 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 12%

    (3:24) 9-R.Dixon punts 40 yards to KC 13, Center-45-T.Gafford, fair catch by 10-T.Hill.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 14 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (12:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 45 yards to DEN 13, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 8 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (7:18) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to DEN 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Norwood MUFFS catch, and recovers at DEN 3. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 5 for 2 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 5 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 92%

    (1:51) 8-B.McManus 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-T.Gafford, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 KC 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to DEN 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 36 for 9 yards (57-D.Alexander).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 2 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58%

    (:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to KC 19, Center-45-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 KC 4th & 11 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (13:07) 2-D.Colquitt punts 42 yards to DEN 34, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 37 for 3 yards (57-D.Alexander).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 1 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 96%

    (9:01) 13-T.Siemian up the middle to KC 8 for 1 yard (29-E.Berry).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48%

    (14:54) 9-R.Dixon punts 55 yards to KC 14, Center-45-T.Gafford, downed by DEN-36-K.Webster.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 20 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (12:29) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to KC 48, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Norwood MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by KC-41-J.Winchester at KC 41. 41-J.Winchester to KC 41 for no gain (87-J.Taylor).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (9:32) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to DEN 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (5:50) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to DEN 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 11 for 4 yards (57-D.Alexander). PENALTY on DEN-36-K.Webster, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at DEN 7.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 KC 4th & 10 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.51 EP
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 93%

    (:19) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass short left to 10-T.Hill ran ob at DEN 3 for 11 yards.

    See the full breakdown →