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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 82

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 55 yards to DEN 27, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 36 for 9 yards (57-D.Alexander).

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.83 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 82, worth -4.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 40, worth -1.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model