Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 56

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – Denver Broncos 10

(9:32) 2-D.Colquitt punts 44 yards to DEN 12, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 11-J.Norwood.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.47 EP
63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 56, worth -2.73 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model