Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 8 at the 85

Denver Broncos 0 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(9:27) 9-R.Dixon punts 35 yards to 50, Center-45-T.Gafford, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.18 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 85, worth -4.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model