Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 60

Kansas City Chiefs 16 – Denver Broncos 17

What Actually Happened

(5:50) 2-D.Colquitt punts 53 yards to DEN 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 11 for 4 yards (57-D.Alexander). PENALTY on DEN-36-K.Webster, Offensive Holding, 3 yards, enforced at DEN 7.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.15 EP
63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 60, worth -2.80 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model