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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 20 at the 38

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(6:22) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.85 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.66 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 38, worth -2.29 EP
KICK -0.89 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 47, worth -2.95 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model