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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 10 at the 10

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(10:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +1.70 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 10, worth +0.03 EP
KICK +1.62 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model