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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2016-11-27 · 16:25 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread -9.0 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

NE
62.2%
NYJ
37.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE offense: +0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • QB edge to NE: Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) -0.013 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.261 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Ryan Fitzpatrick in place of Bryce Petty)
  • NYJ offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
  • NYJ on 7 more days rest than NE

Predicted Final Score

NE 24
–
NYJ 20
Projected margin: NE by 4 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

NE

Matt Slater WR Out Foot
Cyrus Jones CB Questionable Illness
Martellus Bennett TE Questionable Ankle
Tom Brady QB Questionable Knee
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Foot
Rob Gronkowski TE Questionable Chest
Chris Hogan WR Questionable Back

NYJ

Nick Marshall CB Out Ankle
Marcus Williams CB Out Ankle
Nick Mangold C Questionable Ankle
Steve McLendon DT Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NE 22
–
NYJ 17

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 10:33 FG NYJ (10:33) 2-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NE 0 – NYJ 3
  • Q2 15:00 TD NYJ (15:00) 79-B.Qvale reported in as eligible. 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 15-B.Marshall for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – NYJ 9
  • Q2 10:48 FG NE (10:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3 – NYJ 10
  • Q2 06:35 TD NE (6:35) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady to NYJ 9 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NYJ 10. 12-T.Brady pass short right to 19-M.Mitchell for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – NYJ 10
  • Q3 07:37 FG NE (7:37) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 13 – NYJ 10
  • Q4 10:26 TD NYJ (10:26) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete deep right to 81-Q.Enunwa. New York Jets challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 81-Q.Enunwa for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – NYJ 16
  • Q4 07:06 FG NE (7:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 16 – NYJ 17
  • Q4 02:00 TD NE (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 19-M.Mitchell for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 22 – NYJ 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 71
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:56) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to NYJ 16, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-J.Ross to NYJ 26 for 10 yards (92-G.Grissom; 37-J.Richards). NE-37-J.Richards was injured during the play.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 66%

    (10:33) 2-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (8:56) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to NYJ 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 41-B.Skrine MUFFS catch, recovered by NYJ-10-J.Ross at NYJ 13. 10-J.Ross to NYJ 13 for no gain (31-J.Jones).

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (7:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to NE 34, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 18%

    (4:49) 6-R.Allen punts 32 yards to NYJ 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%

    (10:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 36
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 58%

    (2:05) 2-N.Folk 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-A.Branch), Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards, RECOVERED by NE-54-D.Hightower at NE 40. 54-D.Hightower to NE 46 for 6 yards (70-D.Dozier).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (13:07) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to NE 23, Center-46-T.Purdum. 80-D.Amendola to NE 31 for 8 yards (82-B.Bostick).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%

    (7:37) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 18%

    (2:31) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to NE 12, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:55) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 86%

    (7:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (5:16) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to NE 27, Center-46-T.Purdum. 80-D.Amendola to NE 42 for 15 yards (45-R.Miles). PENALTY on NE-32-D.McCourty, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 27.

  • Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 37 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 55%

    (2:53) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White to NYJ 33 for 4 yards (50-D.Lee).