Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- NE offense: +0.139 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
- QB edge to NE: Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ) -0.013 vs Tom Brady (NE) +0.261 EPA/dropback (NYJ starting Ryan Fitzpatrick in place of Bryce Petty)
- NYJ offense: -0.090 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- NYJ on 7 more days rest than NE
- NE defense: +0.016 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 12
NE
NYJ
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 5 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:33 FG NYJ (10:33) 2-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards. NE 0 – NYJ 3
- Q2 15:00 TD NYJ (15:00) 79-B.Qvale reported in as eligible. 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short right to 15-B.Marshall for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NE 0 – NYJ 9
- Q2 10:48 FG NE (10:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 3 – NYJ 10
- Q2 06:35 TD NE (6:35) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady to NYJ 9 for -5 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at NYJ 10. 12-T.Brady pass short right to 19-M.Mitchell for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 9 – NYJ 10
- Q3 07:37 FG NE (7:37) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 13 – NYJ 10
- Q4 10:26 TD NYJ (10:26) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete deep right to 81-Q.Enunwa. New York Jets challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass deep right to 81-Q.Enunwa for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 13 – NYJ 16
- Q4 07:06 FG NE (7:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen. NE 16 – NYJ 17
- Q4 02:00 TD NE (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 19-M.Mitchell for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 22 – NYJ 17
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 NE 4th & 1 at the 71Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EPp(convert) 73%
(13:56) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to NYJ 16, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-J.Ross to NYJ 26 for 10 yards (92-G.Grissom; 37-J.Richards). NE-37-J.Richards was injured during the play.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 66%
(10:33) 2-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41%
(8:56) 6-R.Allen punts 43 yards to NYJ 19, Center-49-J.Cardona. 41-B.Skrine MUFFS catch, recovered by NYJ-10-J.Ross at NYJ 13. 10-J.Ross to NYJ 13 for no gain (31-J.Jones).
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 78Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EPp(convert) 71%
(7:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to NE 34, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
See the full breakdown → -
Q1 NE 4th & 7 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 18%
(4:49) 6-R.Allen punts 32 yards to NYJ 21, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NE 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 96%
(10:48) 3-S.Gostkowski 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 36Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 43% p(FG) 58%
(2:05) 2-N.Folk 54 yard field goal is BLOCKED (97-A.Branch), Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards, RECOVERED by NE-54-D.Hightower at NE 40. 54-D.Hightower to NE 46 for 6 yards (70-D.Dozier).
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 37%
(13:07) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to NE 23, Center-46-T.Purdum. 80-D.Amendola to NE 31 for 8 yards (82-B.Bostick).
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Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 33% p(FG) 96%
(7:37) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 53Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 18%
(2:31) 4-L.Edwards punts 41 yards to NE 12, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.
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Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(14:55) 6-R.Allen punts 47 yards to NYJ 27, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 10-J.Ross.
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Q4 NE 4th & 6 at the 22Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 86%
(7:06) 3-S.Gostkowski 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 NYJ 4th & 11 at the 70Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(5:16) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to NE 27, Center-46-T.Purdum. 80-D.Amendola to NE 42 for 15 yards (45-R.Miles). PENALTY on NE-32-D.McCourty, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 27.
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Q4 NE 4th & 4 at the 37 late-gameChose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47% p(FG) 55%
(2:53) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White to NYJ 33 for 4 yards (50-D.Lee).
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