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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 71

New England Patriots 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(13:56) 6-R.Allen punts 55 yards to NYJ 16, Center-49-J.Cardona. 10-J.Ross to NYJ 26 for 10 yards (92-G.Grissom; 37-J.Richards). NE-37-J.Richards was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -0.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.60 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -4.44 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -2.20 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 29, worth -2.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP