Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 73

New York Jets 10 – New England Patriots 10

(13:07) 4-L.Edwards punts 50 yards to NE 23, Center-46-T.Purdum. 80-D.Amendola to NE 31 for 8 yards (82-B.Bostick).

The Three Options

GO -1.90 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
63% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -4.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model