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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 11

New England Patriots 10 – New York Jets 10

What Actually Happened

(7:37) 3-S.Gostkowski 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +2.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.15 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP
KICK +1.96 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.16 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model