Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 11 at the 70

New York Jets 17 – New England Patriots 16

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to NE 27, Center-46-T.Purdum. 80-D.Amendola to NE 42 for 15 yards (45-R.Miles). PENALTY on NE-32-D.McCourty, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 27.

The Three Options

GO -2.08 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.61 EP
68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 70, worth -3.78 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model