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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
New York Jets
4th & 8 at the 33
New York Jets 0 – New England Patriots 0
What Actually Happened
(10:33) 2-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.
The Three Options
GO
+1.01 EP
-
32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.63 EP
- 68% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 33, worth -0.69 EP
KICK
+1.38 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- 66% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
- 34% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 43, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT
+0.81 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.81 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
