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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 4 at the 37

New England Patriots 16 – New York Jets 17

What Actually Happened

(2:53) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 28-J.White to NYJ 33 for 4 yards (50-D.Lee).

The Three Options

GO +0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.14 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -1.23 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
  • 55% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -1.81 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model