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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 78

New York Jets 3 – New England Patriots 0

What Actually Happened

(7:02) 4-L.Edwards punts 44 yards to NE 34, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.26 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 78, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 35, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP