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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 7 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 21 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(9:55) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to IND 10, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.34 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 47, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.11 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 13, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model