Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- QB edge to PIT: Scott Tolzien (IND) -0.526 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) +0.124 EPA/dropback (IND starting Scott Tolzien in place of Andrew Luck)
- IND defense: +0.080 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
- IND offense: +0.057 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- PIT offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (14th in the league)
- PIT defense: +0.067 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 12
PIT
IND
Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 18 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:16 TD PIT (9:16) (Shotgun) 26-L.Bell left end for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 6 – IND 0
- Q1 01:13 TD PIT (1:13) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 84-A.Brown for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on PIT, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. PIT 13 – IND 0
- Q2 13:07 TD IND (13:07) (Shotgun) 16-S.Tolzien pass short left to 10-D.Moncrief for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 14 – IND 6
- Q2 09:08 TD PIT (9:08) (Pass formation) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 84-A.Brown for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND-21-V.Davis was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. PIT 20 – IND 7
- Q4 05:38 TD PIT (5:38) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 84-A.Brown for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 27 – IND 7
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 IND 4th & 6 at the 34Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 40% p(FG) 69%
(4:13) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.
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Q2 IND 4th & 6 at the 43Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 41% p(FG) 47%
(14:55) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee pass deep right to 86-E.Swoope to PIT 8 for 35 yards (24-J.Gilbert).
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Q2 IND 4th & 5 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48%
(7:34) (Punt formation) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to PIT 23, Center-45-M.Overton, fair catch by 84-A.Brown.
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Q2 PIT 4th & 6 at the 73Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(6:03) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to IND 37, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
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Q2 IND 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(1:12) (Shotgun) 16-S.Tolzien pass incomplete short middle to 80-C.Rogers (23-M.Mitchell).
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Q3 PIT 4th & 7 at the 47Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 38% p(FG) 37%
(9:55) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 37 yards to IND 10, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
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Q3 IND 4th & 4 at the 18Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44% p(FG) 92%
(1:08) (Shotgun) 16-S.Tolzien pass short middle to 83-D.Allen to PIT 6 for 12 yards (94-L.Timmons) [48-B.Dupree].
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Q4 IND 4th & 1 at the 1Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%
(13:31) (Shotgun) 16-S.Tolzien pass incomplete short right to 15-P.Dorsett.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 7 at the 81Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(9:18) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 54 yards to IND 27, Center-60-G.Warren, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.
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Q4 PIT 4th & 4 at the 50 late-gameChose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 30%
(1:53) 4-J.Berry punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-60-G.Warren, Touchback.