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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 4 at the 18

Indianapolis Colts 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 21

What Actually Happened

(1:08) (Shotgun) 16-S.Tolzien pass short middle to 83-D.Allen to PIT 6 for 12 yards (94-L.Timmons) [48-B.Dupree].

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
What Happened
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.09 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +2.25 EP
Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.52 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 28, worth -0.81 EP
PUNT +0.51 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model