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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 4 at the 50

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 – Indianapolis Colts 7

What Actually Happened

(1:53) 4-J.Berry punts 50 yards to end zone, Center-60-G.Warren, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +1.91 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 50, worth -1.61 EP
KICK -0.47 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 49, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 14, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP