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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 34

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:13) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +0.96 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.43 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 34, worth -1.31 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened
  • 69% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 31% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.05 EP
PUNT +0.14 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model