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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(13:00) 8-D.Kaser punts 59 yards to HOU 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-W.Fuller to HOU 18 for 9 yards (84-S.McGrath; 31-A.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO -1.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -4.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.63 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.63 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP