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San Diego Chargers

HC Mike McCoy
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HOU Home

Houston Texans

HC Bill O'Brien
Sunday 2016-11-27 · 13:00 NRG Stadium, Houston US 🏟 Dome Spread -2.5 O/U 45.5

Win Probability

SD
57.3%
HOU
42.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LAC on 8 more days rest than HOU
  • HOU offense: -0.074 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • Brock Osweiler (HOU): -0.063 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.084 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

SD 24
–
HOU 22
Projected margin: SD by 2 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

SD

Jatavis Brown LB Out Knee
Asante Cleveland TE Out Concussion
Brandon Flowers CB Out Concussion
Travis Benjamin WR Questionable Knee
Jeremy Butler WR Questionable Ankle
Tourek Williams LB Questionable Hamstring

HOU

Alfred Blue RB Out Calf
Tyler Ervin RB Out Ribs
John Simon LB Out Chest
Jaelen Strong WR Out Ankle
Jay Prosch RB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

SD 21
–
HOU 13

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 11:16 TD HOU (11:16) 17-B.Osweiler up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. SD 0 – HOU 6
  • Q2 06:52 TD LAC (6:52) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 15-D.Inman for 52 yards, TOUCHDOWN [59-W.Mercilus]. SD 6 – HOU 7
  • Q2 02:00 TD LAC (2:00) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 16-Ty.Williams for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 13 – HOU 7
  • Q4 14:13 FG HOU (14:13) 8-N.Novak 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. SD 14 – HOU 10
  • Q4 09:59 TD LAC (9:59) 17-P.Rivers pass short right to 86-H.Henry for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SD 20 – HOU 10
  • Q4 00:18 FG HOU (:18) 8-N.Novak 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. SD 21 – HOU 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP
    p(convert) 54%

    (13:00) 8-D.Kaser punts 59 yards to HOU 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-W.Fuller to HOU 18 for 9 yards (84-S.McGrath; 31-A.Phillips).

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 6 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 24%

    (10:26) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-46-J.Weeks, Touchback.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 47%

    (6:38) 8-D.Kaser punts 38 yards to HOU 5, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller.

  • Q1 HOU 4th & 2 at the 74
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 60%

    (3:53) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to LAC 21, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 15 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (1:41) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to HOU 22, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-W.Fuller to HOU 28 for 6 yards (53-J.Perry). FUMBLES (53-J.Perry), recovered by HOU-32-R.Nelson at HOU 28. 32-R.Nelson to HOU 28 for no gain (84-S.McGrath).

  • Q2 HOU 4th & 18 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (:33) 9-S.Lechler punts 45 yards to LAC 38, Center-46-J.Weeks. 89-I.Burse to LAC 49 for 11 yards (20-D.Jones; 52-B.Peters).

  • Q3 HOU 4th & 6 at the 46
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 40%

    (11:11) 9-S.Lechler punts 38 yards to LAC 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 7 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:48) 8-D.Kaser punts 53 yards to HOU 25, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-W.Fuller pushed ob at HOU 37 for 12 yards (31-A.Phillips). PENALTY on LAC-31-A.Phillips, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at HOU 37.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (14:13) 8-N.Novak 19 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 6 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 26%

    (7:15) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 9 at the 38 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 60%

    (4:34) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short middle to 13-B.Miller.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 14 at the 51 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 28%

    (2:30) 8-D.Kaser punts 38 yards to HOU 13, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

  • Q4 HOU 4th & 3 at the 80 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:47) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler scrambles up the middle to HOU 41 for 21 yards (31-A.Phillips).