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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 46

Houston Texans 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:11) 9-S.Lechler punts 38 yards to LAC 8, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.41 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -0.81 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model