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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 52

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(7:15) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to end zone, Center-47-M.Windt, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.72 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 52, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.42 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP