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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 38

Houston Texans 10 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(4:34) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short middle to 13-B.Miller.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.84 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.46 EP
KICK +0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.21 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.07 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP