Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 14 at the 51

Los Angeles Chargers 21 – Houston Texans 10

What Actually Happened

(2:30) 8-D.Kaser punts 38 yards to HOU 13, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.33 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +1.35 EP
73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 51, worth -2.34 EP

KICK -1.33 EP

28% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.20 EP
72% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model