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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 43

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:38) 8-D.Kaser punts 38 yards to HOU 5, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 15-W.Fuller.

The Three Options

GO -0.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.15 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 43, worth -2.48 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 49, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 12, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP