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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 74

Houston Texans 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 9-S.Lechler punts 53 yards to LAC 21, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 89-I.Burse.

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.43 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP