Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 74

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Houston Texans 0

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to HOU 22, Center-47-M.Windt. 15-W.Fuller to HOU 28 for 6 yards (53-J.Perry). FUMBLES (53-J.Perry), recovered by HOU-32-R.Nelson at HOU 28. 32-R.Nelson to HOU 28 for no gain (84-S.McGrath).

The Three Options

GO -2.67 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.80 EP
71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 74, worth -4.48 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model